ANALYSIS OF THE ELECTION - HOW BUSH WON
2004 Election Map
Maps and cartograms
of the 2004 US presidential election results.
Poll Results Analysis by Borosage & Greenberg
Progressive commentator Robert Borosage of the
Campaign for America's Future
analyzes the 2004 presidential election results, including the hidden gains made
by progressives in organization and state level election wins. Democratic pollster Stan
Greenberg follows Borosage to discuss polling results over the week and a
half leading up to and through the election.
Based on these polls, Greenberg analyzes how Bush won and
Kerry lost in the last days of the election campaign.
Click here for National Press Club transcript (pdf - November 5, 2004).
James Carville and Stanley Greenberg
SOLVING THE PARADOX OF 2004 -
Why America Wanted Change but Voted for Continuity. Illustrates the lack of mandate
for George Bush on nearly every signficant political issue,
based on polling results from the electorate.
Click here for Solving the Paradox (pdf - November 9, 2004).
STRATEGY FOR PROGRESSIVES
Notes from Swing the Vote's planning session held December 5, 2004 (pdf) at the
Franklin County Community Development Corporation’s offices in Greenfield, Mass.
The session was held to help determine Swing the Vote’s future work.
These notes are almost entirely comprised of the participants’ own answers
to the various strategy questions posed in the
planning session’s agenda (pdf).
ELECTION FRAUD
Discussion of whether the election was 'stolen' -
election fraud, electronic voting machine dangers, etc.
Download the STV paper on The Right to a Secure, Secret, Straight Vote (pdf)
Click here for the latest post election news.
CRITIQUE OF STV's OWN WORK
Download the sketch of Swing the Vote's genesis, work and impact (pdf)
Download the 2004 Presidential Election results compared with the 2000 vote in Cheshire County, NH (pdf)
Cheshire County Vote
Cheshire County went strongly for Kerry on Nov. 2nd, voting
24,429 for Kerry to only 16,463 for Bush, a margin of victory of
7,966 votes for Kerry in Cheshire County. By contrast, in 2000
the Democratic margin for Gore in Cheshire County was only 3,589
votes (Gore getting 17,382 and Bush getting 13,793 that year).
These figures thus show a gross Democratic gain in Cheshire County
of 7,047 votes when 2004 is compared to 2000 (24,429 in 2004 minus
17,382 in 2000). They also show a net increase in the Democratic
margin of victory in the county of 4,377 votes (7,966 in 2004 minus
3,589 in 2000).
The NH Secretary of State's updated election results showed that Kerry
won New Hampshire by only 9,348 votes (340,126 for Kerry to 330,778 for Bush).
Paraphrasing Tim Butterworth's point on Sunday evening at the potluck:
Kerry's 7,966 vote margin of victory in Cheshire County, with the statewide
New Hampshire margin of victory being only 9,348, means that Cheshire County provided,
in effect, 85% of Kerry's margin of victory in New Hampshire.
(In absolute terms, of course, other counties also contributed strongly
to the Kerry victory, but we were all dragged back down by Republican wins
in the southeastern NH counties.)
Nearly half (46.8%) of Kerry's statewide margin of victory was provided, in effect,
by the increase in the Democratic margin of victory in Cheshire County generated by all
the groups working there this year (4,377 vote increase in margin of victory in 2004 in
Cheshire County divided by the 9,348 vote margin statewide = 46.8%).
In other words, nearly half of Kerry's NH win came, in effect, from the extra
Democratic vote turnout generated by the organizations working in Cheshire County
(and by Bush's own role mobilizing Democratic voter turnout!).
The pivotal role of Cheshire County in the Kerry victory was the product
of many groups working there, including ACT, MoveOn, the Franklin County (MA)
Democrats and, of course, the Cheshire County Democrats themselves,
but I think that Swing the Vote's work also deserves some of the credit for this win.
Cheshire County had an amazing 6,358 people register to vote on election day this year,
out of 41,718 voting. Making the reasonable assumption that all who registered on
election day voted, this means that 15% of the people voting in Cheshire County
registered that day to vote. This high voter registration was obviously the product
of many groups' efforts (including the Republicans, I would guess, based on the high
registration rate in Rindge and the strong vote for Bush there [1,626 for Bush to 1,500 for
Kerry with 608 registrations on election day]), but, again, I am sure Swing the Vote played
a positive contributing role.
Like we all realized by election night, we did a good thing, a really good thing
in Cheshire County. This was a win for all of us, all of the progressive and anti-reactionary
forces working side-by-side in the county, and we should learn and teach the lesson of what
is possible when such a powerful united front focuses its unity on an electoral leverage point.
-- Rudy Perkins
Paid for by Swing The Vote and
not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee.
Donations will be used in connection with a Federal election and are not tax deductible.
Swing The Vote, PO Box 716, Rindge, NH 03461-0716
www.swingthevote.us
978-249-0923, or Toll free: 866-543-VOTE (8683)
swingthevote@yahoo.com
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